Prognosis
The expected course of a condition — always a population estimate, never a prediction about you.
What it means
The likely course of a condition — whether it will improve, stay the same, or worsen, and over what timescale.
Two things about prognostic statistics are worth knowing before you look any up:
- They describe groups, not individuals. A five-year survival figure is an average across thousands of people with different ages, health and disease characteristics
- They are always out of date. Five-year survival figures published today describe people diagnosed at least five years ago, treated with what was available then
In practice
In clinic letters, and far more often in whatever you find online at two in the morning.
Sometimes phrased as "guarded" or "good" rather than numerically, which is often deliberate.
Why it matters
Ask what the figures mean for someone with your specific situation — age, stage, other health — rather than the headline number.
Decide how much you want to know, and say so. Wanting detailed numbers and not wanting them are both entirely legitimate, and you can change your mind.
Be careful with what you find online. Much of it is older, from other countries, or from a different stage of the same condition.
Clinically reviewed by Dr Mohammad Zubair Khan, GMC 7563469
Last reviewed
August 30, 2026